Hezbollah's New Toys |
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by Michael Weiss, June 11, 2007 |
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One Wallace Shawn's dictum in Princess Bride -- "Never fight a land war in Asia!" -- leaves everything to chance when it comes to waging combat in the Middle East with the use of Asian ballistics. According to the Jerusalem Post,
Hizbullah has amassed an undisclosed number of Fatah-110 rockets, which could theoretically be fired at Tel Aviv, according to a report in Britain's Sunday Times. The projectile, an upgraded Chinese assault rocket, has a 500-lb warhead and a range of 200 kilometers.
And Nasrallah's goons have got deep bunkers for hiding out from Israeli aircraft should a third Lebanon War be in the offing. The open secret of the second, of course, was that a land war was precisely what was needed to rout Hezbollah. Olmert didn't want to risk more IDF lives than he thought was necessary, and so his approval rating is lower than Bush's, and Hezbollah digs further into the earth and infrastructure of an enfeebled Mideast democracy.
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Michael is a contributing editor of Jewcy. His work has appeared in Slate, Gawker, New York, Democratiya, The New Criterion and The Weekly Standard. His blog is Snarksmith. More... |
mmausner
Several of my friends fought on the ground in Lebanon, and I and they agree with you that it will take a much more brutal door-to-door ground combat campaign to uproot Hezbollah. And it is inevitable, perhaps, that as long as Hezbollah exists as a belligerent, interested parties will find a way to arm them.
And while I agree with Winograd and the 99.9% of the Israeli population that wants Olmert and Peretz sacked for incompetence, I do also take a nuanced view of the war. It did weaken Hezbollah, and create a much more complicated situation in Lebanon where Hezbollah's freedom of action is for the moment greatly curtailed. There are int'l troops who DO have a big impact on Hezbollah's deployment and resupply, even if they are pussy-ass French who will leave at the first real sign of trouble. But more important, the political map of Lebanon has been at least partially redrawn, and a new civil war or massive reform may now be possible that would de-fang Hezbollah without the necessity of another Israeli ground campaign.
Politics is the art of the possible, and war is an extension of politics. Given the incompetence of both Israel's leaders and army last summer, the outcome of that war is by no means a simple defeat, and in some respects Israel is better off. This is not to say that Olmert shouldn't be impeached and made to live in Sderot with Peretz (he should), only to say that there is a lot of nuance here. As with the '67 war leading to massive Soviet resupply of the Arabs, only COMPLETE victory can lead to genuine peace.
Israel has never had the kind of victory over any of its enemies where it could dictate terms (like, say, America and Russia dictating terms to Germany and Japan in 1945). The UN and world won't let that happen (for its own inscrutable and probably anti-semitic reasons). So unless the world just shuts the f--k up and lets us fight it out once and for all, there will be conflict for the foreseeable future here.