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THE CABAL
Speak Mitt Romney |
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 by Daniel Koffler, January 5, 2008 |
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The Republicans are having a seminar-room style debate in New Hampshire, and they've just concluded a good 10-20 minutes on health care reform. The only one who seemed to know anything about healthcare policy other than "socialism bad" was Mitt Romney, who --- for possibly the first time in a major public event since the beginning of the campaign --- gave a detailed defense of the health care plan he enacted in Massachusetts, a kind of public-private hybrid that's supposed to provide universal coverage. That sounds interesting --- I'd like to hear a lot more about it.
At last, we got to see a bit of the competent, managerial, innovative liberal Republican platform I had hoped Romney would have run on from the beginning. To be sure, Romney's exposition of his health care policy probably didn't score very well with Republican primary voters, but it's not as if pretending to have had a Damascene conversion on every position he held prior to 2006 is working all that well for him either.
UPDATE: Bill Richardson (slight paraphrase): "When I was Energy Secretary, I worked on securing fissionable material with the Soviet Union...One of the first things I would do as president is sign a non-proliferation treaty with the Soviet Union." What the hell? At least when Fred Thompson goofs like this, he has senility as an excuse. Somebody give Richardson the hook.
UPDATE: As Josh Marshall notes, there was one moment of emotional pique in the Democratic debate, all three main contenders seemed to spar pretty well, it's not clear who got the best of it, and from there the debate drifted into a dying fall. For what it's worth, Obama has now jumped ahead of Clinton at Intrade:
Clinton: 42.5/42.6 (-8.6)
Obama: 53.1/54.0 (+8.3)
N.B. to David N. Friedman: There used to be a lot of liberal Republicans, like, for example, George Romney. Go here and search "Conservative vs. Progressive Republicanism" to see a clip of Jacob Javits and William F. Buckley discussing what a liberal Republican is --- and Javits explain why he likes the term "liberal." A liberal Republican isn't the same thing as a liberal simpliciter. That tradition is basically moribund today, but Romney Jr. governed Massachusetts as a liberal Republican, and the staggering phoniness and clumsiness with which he presents himself as a National Review cover boy today underlines the implausibility of his having had a genuine conversion coincide neatly with the beginning of his national ambitions. The fact that, for one moment tonight, Romney finally expressed himself fluidly and naturally belies the idea that his only mode of expression is a phony and clumsy one. Which is to say that the Romney campaign, to date, has been a months-long, shameless eruption of bullshit.
UPDATE: More Intrade movement, this time on the Republican side:
McCain: 33.1/33.9 (+0.5)
Giuliani: 31.2/32.0 (+4.5)
Huckabee: 14.5/15.7 (+0.1)
Romney: 10.2/12.0 (-4.1)
Two observations here: First, Romney is bleeding confidence like a punctured artery. That big bid/ask spread suggests traders with stock in Romney are doing their damnedest to preserve a little value before they sell, but nobody's buying. Romney's on his way to becoming a penny stock. Second, Giuliani is bouncing back, and is basically even with McCain. Currently, however, the media have written off Giuliani (myself included) in much the same way they wrote off McCain a few years months ago [odd slip --- it was very late when I wrote this --- DK].
How to explain the Giuliani mini-rally? It might just be an epiphenomenon of the Romney collapse, but here's one potential story of a Giuliani comeback: The Republican debate tonight was a pretty ugly pile-on of Romney --- McCain was frankly immature, cackling like Victor Von Doom as David Weigel put it --- and if Romney is going down, he's got the money and organization to stay in a long time and do his best to take down his opponents if he wants to, and I think he does.
If Romney stays in through South Carolina and Michigan, that splits the non-dogpatch vote going into Super Duper Tuesday. If John McCain crushes Romney and gets the GOP establishment behind him, there won't be any oxygen left for Giuliani. On the other hand, if Romney stays in and can fight at least to an indecisive result in New Hampshire and Michigan --- that is, if there isn't a clear anti-Huckabee before Feb. 5 --- Giuliani may still be viable. It's a long shot, but the logic dooming every single Republican candidate also means it's premature to count any of them out.
UPDATE: Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the prediction markets are anything but a measure of conventional wisdom on how things will play out. On Thursday, a trader with some money to invest could have made a very safe and very profitable bet arbitraging the discrepancy between Obama's winning-Iowa price and his winning -the-nomination price (well, it's not a true arbitrage, but you get the idea).
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Daniel Koffler is a Clarendon Scholar and graduate student in philosophy at the University of Oxford. More... |
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David N. Friedman
Part of the legacy of Pres. GW Bush is that conservatism has been dealt a hard blow. His free-spending and failure to articulate a consistent conservative agenda has set up an election between the socialist left and a muddled Republican party with fragile ability to clearly articulate what could be called a conservative agenda.
Among the first tier of GOP candidates--none appear as a strong, consistent conservative. Romney has the nod, not only from me, but from almost all conservative quarters as the most conservative and the best bet to beat Hillary or Obama. Fred Thompson might look a bit better on paper but his low-energy is killing his candidacy.
It is surely trouble if a conservative like me can see Romney as a conservative, while a leftist like Daniel Koffler, sees Romney as a liberal Republican. The verdict on Bush is that he is not a conservative and his spending record kills anything positive he has created by waging an excellent war in Iraq and Afghanistan or choosing a couple of good judges on the Supreme Court. It is clear that a Romney Presidency will not be conservatism personified and doubts remain, although McCain is a proven compromiser, Huckabee is a disaster with a pleasant demeanor (if Barack Obama wants some good advice--he should imitate Huckabee's charm and lack of arrogance. Obama has emerged as a dreadfully arrogant man--together with dangerous policies.)
The doubts about Romney remain but he remains the best bet. Daniel is looking at what is hidden under the surface and likes what he sees. I see what is on the surface and I figure that what we see is what we get most of the time.
Anonymous
Public-private hybrid healthcare is the 2-tiered universal healthcare system that pretty much all European countries are using. Its downside is that the private one sucks away all the good doctors and has more money, so the public one is neglected and crappy.
Anonymous
Also note the only 3 countries that are using Canadian style health care system are Canada, Cuba and North Korea. Yes, even China ditched that system ages ago.
Anonymous
P.S. In china, the government regulates the price of health care, i.e. they control how much hospitals are allowed to charge a patient for surgery, check-up, doctor appointments ect. so medical care is cheap and affordable for the majority of chinese people. The downside is that doctors in China are not nearly as rich as the ones in US, Canada or Europe.
Barbara Reader
Pubs:
Great fun to watch. I was happy that both McCain and Huckabee had a
chance to respond to Mr. Corporate America's ads against them, and that
even Rudy, who is considered Corporate America's second choice after
Romney, joined in the fun at one point. CEO baiting!! An old sport for
Dems, but a new one for Pubs!!
Now, Romney:Corporate America as Huckabee:Religious Right. They aren't
phoneys who are trying to claim to be part of these Pub factions, they
REALLY ARE part of these pub factions.
FUN!!!
Romney owning up to his Mass. health plan was interesting, but will probably damage him.
In
contrast, Rudy is no more corporate than Huckabee. It's just that the
Wall Street types are still enthusiastic about the fact that they can
now live in NYC and not commute hours every day. I still say Rudy will
show up at the Pub convention having carried only NY, as a favorite son.
New Hampshire will be very interesting. I hope I'm wrong and Romney
doesn't pull this out. I love to see either McCain or even Huckabee
drive Wall Street nuts.
I thought that Fred Thompson did better than in the past, and Ron Paul did worse.
Dems:
According to the ABC commentary, some agreement was reached between
Richardson and Obama... and Richardson instructed his people in Iowa to
go to Obama in any caucus in which Richardson himself was not viable.
According to Richardson's campaign literature (which I get daily via
e-mail) he got 20,000 voters who came out for him (7%, he said), (ABC
reported some 240,000 caucus goers) but due to the Iowa rules, most of
their votes didn't count for him. If all this is true, and you combine
ABC's report with Richardson (and it may not be true) Obama's very
large lead in Iowa was due mostly to his deal with Richardson.
I have certainly gotten the feeling that Richardson wants to be Veep,
and perhaps Obama will steal one from the Pubs playbook and make sure
his VP will be just as obnoxious to people who don't like him as he is.
After all, like Dick Cheney, Richardson is an elder statesman with
extensive experience. Anyone who wouldn't vote for an Hispanic VP
wouldn't vote for an African-American on top of the ticket, anyway.
This could well work to cool the Republican zeel to get any Dem who is
elected impeached as soon as possible. Why would they want to trade
Obama for Richardson?
Having said that, I didn't think any of the Dem candidates did well
except Edwards. I think he drove home the fact that no matter how rich
he is now, that is not where he came from and he hasn't forgotten where
he came from. It was the first time I found him compelling. Richardson
was a yawn. And since the Pub debate was so much more bitter than the
Dem one, his line about how he had been in hostage negotiations that
were more civil fell flat for me. Hillary was passionate, and I didn't
find her shrill, but people usually object to women who are passionate
outside of the Bedroom. What is good in a man is emotionality in a
woman. So it probably worked against her. Obama was quiet and not
electric at all. Obama really blew it by not watching the Pub debate
and being prepared to respond to Thompson's mischaracterization of him.
So, IMHO, the next poll in NH will show gains for both McCain and
Huckabee, and on the Dem side, gains for Edwards, probably at Hil's
expense. I largely agree with the values as set by the stocks.
Anonymous
Samantha Power is a douche bag.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/1790
kid blast
...she's smokin'.
http://www.mensvogue.com/business/politics/feature/articles/2007/06/samantha_power?currentPage=2
Say this, say that. Turn heads, sweat w/ Clooney, teach at Harvard. Too bad Obama's already married. Michelle's nice and all, but we knew Jackie Kennedy, and she's no Jackie Kennedy.
I'm sure Power's not responsible for Obama's curious assertion that the Sunni Awakening was a result of the Democratic takeover of Congress in '06. Some other leggy advisor, a blonde probably, can be blamed for that whopper.
kid blast
http://www.mensvogue.com/business/politics/feature/articles/2007/06/samantha_power?currentPage=1