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| What Does Bin Laden Know? | |
 by Ali Eteraz, September 12, 2007
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While most of my previous writings have been about the (mis)interpretation of the Quran that Bin Laden engaged in -- for example, his reading of The Slayer Verse 9:5 in the Quran -- I have never really stopped to think about his geo-political evaluations.
While reading one of his interviews from 1999, I came across a passage that makes him appear a bit prophetic, and based on that, makes me wonder what he, a former ally of the CIA, learned in his time. Again keep in mind this is four years before we invaded Iraq:
These days, there is also a plan to divide Iraq into three - one in the north for Muslim kurds, a state in the middle, and a third in the south.
Given the fact that we know that AEI and Project for New American Century had plans for Iraq in the late 90's, it makes one wonder how Bin Laden was simultaneously aware of them. Is it really just a guess?
In his interview he went on to add another interesting tid-bit. It could be a bit of wishful thinking:
The same applies to the land of the two mosques (Saudi Arabia) where there is a plan to divide it into a state for the two mosques, another state for oil in the eastern region, and a state in the middle. This would make the people of the two mosques always busy trying to earn a living, and would leave a few people in the oil region who can be easily controlled.
Again, that plan seems extremely specific. Too specific, no? How many people have you met -- certainly I have never met any -- who have ever articulated such a plan about Saudi Arabia. The specificity of that plan bothers me, especially because it is coming from a guy who used to hob-nob with all of our insiders, and then knew about our Iraq plans four years before they were advanced. It might be possible that in 1999 there was potentially such a plan for Saudi Arabia -- dreamt up by whom? -- but things changed radically in 2001 when Saudi Arabia threw their entire weight with us.
Ah hell, who knows, maybe all this 9/11 talk has just got me chasing Bin Laden ghosts. The left side of my political brain says that the right-wing's fear-mongering is working; the right side of my political brain says that in today's world you can never be too careful.
UPDATE: In an email I am shown this map about redrawing the Middle East in which Saudi Arabia is split into three. That map comes from the Armed Forces Journal which printed an article on the subject. This was after the Iraq War, though.
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Ali Eteraz, 27, is a columnist for Jewcy, a politics and culture magazine. He also contributes regularly to the More... |
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Michael Weiss
Ah hell, who knows, maybe
Ah hell, who knows, maybe all this 9/11 talk has just got me chasing Bin Laden ghosts.
I think so, Ali. While of course it's true that the CIA was funding mujahideen in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, somehow I don't see them saying, "Hey, here's a piece by Richard Perle you guys might be interested in."
Also, it was the Zarqawist wing of Al Qaeda that gave us the sectarian warfare that threatens to divide Iraq into three separate countries. The U.S., meanwhile, is expending perhaps too much of its blood and treasure to see that Iraq stays united. Binny was only prophetic if the "plan" to which he referred was his own.
Yossi Gurvitz
The AEI plan was public since 1997
Several neo-conservatives tried to interest Binyamin Netanyahu, then (God preserve us) Prime Ministter of Israel, in the Iraq plan in 1997. This made headlines around here. To his credit - and trust me, his credit with me was never high - Betanyahu rejected it. But the plan was public before 1999.
As to Saudi Arabia, who knows?
Anonymous
that looks like this map
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2006/09/21/8-re-drawing-the-map-of-the-...
Mason Lerner
That Saudi plan is not that specific...
And the US is clearly committed to keeping Iraq intact. Isn't that why we are still over there? And anyways, accusing a foreign enemy of trying to divide and conquer would hardly take a crystal ball.
Me thinks you need not worry if the fear-mongering of the right has affected you. You need to worry more about why you give Osama far more credit than he deserves.
Irving
Maps
Do you happen to know of a map that has the Middle East before it was split up after the War? Check out what would be the most beneficial redrawing of boundaries .
Mark G
Better not question the faith
"And the US is clearly committed to keeping Iraq intact."
Clearly! You should listen to these guys, Ali. They know what's what. Purge those wacky thoughts from your mind. The US has nothing but good intentions now, dontcha know?
Anonymous
Mark G, you're quite dim.
Mark G, you're quite dim. Even if you oppose the war and loathe Bush - as I do - how do you equate keeping Iraq together as a single country with "good intentions"? The boundaries drawn by Gertrude Bell (ever hear of her?) that created the modern state of Iraq were anything but noble in intention, and no one following the news can maintain that the US is in favor of a tri-national split. For one thing, wouldn't that hurt our prospects for oil contracts and establishing permanent military bases in the Middle East?
Montag
Don't join the ranks of the fruitloops
Given the fact that we know that AEI and Project for New American Century had plans for Iraq in the late 90's, it makes one wonder how Bin Laden was simultaneously aware of them. Is it really just a guess?
No, it's a simple conspiracy-spinning by Bin Laden of what was the de facto situation on the ground in Iraq in 1999, ie. that there were no-fly zones established to protect the Kurds in the north and Shia in the south, leading to the informal partition of the country. Bin Laden was claiming that the partition was preconceived, rather than being a response to the genocidal actions of his regime. And so, it seems, are you :(
Mark G
quite dim thoughts
"how do you equate keeping Iraq together as a single country with "good intentions"?"
I don't. I was being sarcastic, referencing credulous absurdities uttered by Lerner and Weiss.
"no one following the news can maintain that the US is in favor of a tri-national split"
Really? I'm not convinced. Which news do you follow?
Anonymous
Well then your sarcasm fails
All Lerner said was that the US is committed to keeping Iraq together, which is self-evident, regardless of what Lerner thinks drives that commitment. You were the one to impute "good intentions" to this endeavor.
Clearly you think the U.S. wants to see Iraq break up into three countries. What's your evidence for this?
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