So, quite predictably, Nicolas Sarkozy got elected President of the French Republic last Sunday. What is different about Sarkozy? Well, a pretty rare fact in the history of the 5th Republic, Sarkozy is not a former student of the infamous National Administration School, or ENA. Nor is his probable prime minister, François Fillon. Fillon will most likely be nominated right after the official power transfer to Sarkozy from Chirac, which is to occur on May 16th. Sarkozy will then have some time for free play with a remaining right-wing majority in Parliament, until June, when legislative elections will happen to renew the National Assembly. Most commentators agree so far that it is likely that the French will send in a right-wing majority to support the change they are expecting from Sarkozy. While the centrist Bayrou’s soon-to-be-founded new party could make a dent in this majority, it is unlikely that the major player in the opposition, the Socialist party, will have any significant minority in the Assembly, especially as its leaders are already fighting over whom (of those who had already thought to be the Socialist nominee for the presidential election) should lead the party in those elections.

In the meantime, Sarkozy is taking much-publicized vacations off Malta. The opposition is wondering where the money for the hugely expensive cruise came from. This is no surprise, as the outgoing president has been avoiding prosecutions in multiple corruption affairs throughout his term, and as corruption is general is a French national pastime. While he’s away, some minor (by French standards) riots have taken place, mostly   coordinated by extreme-left organizations. This is likely to resolve itself quickly and not develop into a full-blown revolt: the adversaries of Sarkozy have too much to win through the use of the ‘democratic’ system, such as money in the upcoming legislative elections, a bit like the ‘reimbursement of campaign expenses’ for the presidential campaign I described in my previous post.

It’s unlikely that much will change after Sarkozy. He may succeed in reducing the burden of taxes and in facilitating house buying for the people, but it is very unlikely that he will be able to negotiate a reduction of the number of ‘civil servants’ even with Fillon the not-too-hated-one as PM. The inertia of the French society is greater than it itself knows, and it’s sometimes necessary to have the Brits remind them of why it is so. The eventual internal (it’s doing pretty well overseas) economic and social failures do not bode well for the future of “the region.”

Finally, what is Sarkozy’s deal with the U.S.? Most commentators present him as friendly to the States. Some have reservations: even if he is friendly to the States, it will be difficult for him to change the generally entrenched French anti-Americanism. And while he has indeed condemned the most obvious anti-Americanism, one should pay attention to the details: he is rumored to have said to President Bush on a telephone call after his victory on Sunday, and has at least repeated it publicly, that the USA and France were friends, but that friends could have “differences” – i.e. “I’ll do whatever works for me, and I’m happy to have you around because most of the times whatever works for me works for you, too.”

This pragmatic politics is characteristic of 5th Republic France, and of Sarkozy himself. Unfortunately, it does not guarantee in any way that France will be engaged with the United States in any battle (in the extensive sense of the term) necessary to be fought to uphold common values (freedom, humanism, etc.): Sarkozy was opposed to the war in Iraq and mentioned that, should he be elected, French troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan. La France: plus ça change….