Anon,

You might really want to look at the number JOI (Kerry's org) has on this stuff. I know that the intuitive "sense" of the Jewish community is as you say, but the numbers we're showing are otherwise. You can't separate out variables, and so it is very hard to validate the decline as a result of intermarriage. It's just as likley that intermarriage results from this decline, which results from assimilation, or any number of other scenarios.

But far more hopeful are the new numbers we're seeing that show how outreach to the intermarried can have a huge effect on the "decline". Seriously, you might be surprised if you took a peek at what people are finding out.