of course, it is theoretically POSSIBLE for the surge to work.  I wouldn't bet on it, for the reasons cited above and others discussed elsewhere...

it IS a tiny bit like NY in the early 90's, in that there were thousands of people dying with no end in sight, and then changes in policing strategy were made.  The policing DID help in a few small but significant ways, but IMO the sea change came from within the psychology and demographics on the street itself.  Hip-hop's message and the 'little brother syndrome'  made the next generation of 12-year-olds NOT want to be like their older dead gangbanging or crack ho'ing older siblings, choosing to 'kill' each other with rhymes instead of guns... and as 'Tipping Point' pointed out, the Roe demographic kicked in that there were simply measurably far less unwanted children (most likely to end up in crime) once abortion-on-demand became widely available.

 Point being, there may be a hundred significant internal trends within Iraqi society, any one or two or several of which may throttle the level of violence (or amp it, for that matter).  The 'surge' even at its most effective is not likely to do much more than ride the waves-- and nobody really knows whether the waves are getting bigger or smaller.  I'm sure they'll take the credit or the blame, but ultimately the fortunes of 20 million iraqis are in nobody's hands but the iraqis themselves (and god, if you will)