THE CABAL
| John McCain Can Win (Don't Laugh) | |
 by Karol Sheinin, November 14, 2007
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I was at a fancy dinner last night, seated with notables
like NPR's Robert Siegel and Jewcy's own Abe Greenwald, when I said what I always say about
election 2008: I'm afraid we're going to end up with John McCain as the
Republican candidate.
The reaction I got from many around the table proved to me,
yet again, that McCain remains the one to watch in the Republican race. There was a multi-person gasp and then
someone said "We'd be lucky to get McCain." "He supported the surge when it was extremely unpopular
to do so," said another.
"He's a war hero."
"He's principled." "He could beat Hillary." "He's got cross-over appeal."
Oy.
What's happening here is what I imagined would happen when Rudy Giuliani, a man I admire and would love to see be president, became the frontrunner. I've been around Republican primaries in many different states, for many years, and I know that on election day Republican primary voters will not choose the pro-choice, pro-civil unions, ex-mayor of NY who has been married three times. They will pick the candidate they feel is at once most conservative and also most likely to win in the general election. I want to be wrong. I want Republican primary voters to prove me wrong. But I know the people that vote in primaries and they are just not going to choose Rudy. He's got one part of the equation; he's likely the strongest general election candidate against Hillary Clinton. That won't be enough for Republican primary voters.
Republicans who vote in primaries tend to be extremely principled and, can fairly easily be categorized as pro-life and pro-gun (despite what people believe, the gay marriage issue is hardly one at all, as no serious candidate on either side supports gay marriage). Giuliani stands on the other side of both the abortion and gun issue and no amount of "but I'm a federalist" is going to change that. These voters simply don't trust a candidate that disagrees with them so deeply on the two issues that matter most to them.
So, alarmed by Rudy, bored by Romney, suspicious of Huckabee, deflated by Thompson and running in the other direction from Paul, Republicans will begin to look at John McCain as the guy they've known all along, the one who has a "good enough" ACU Lifetime rating of 82%. In short, he'll be the Republican John Kerry. It's easy to forget that John Kerry was all but counted out of the 2004 Democratic primary. It was going to be Howard Dean, and there were no two ways about it. Dean had the "money+poll numbers=win " formula that pundits rely on to make predictions. But then John Kerry mortgaged his house and mounted a comeback. The comeback rested on the idea that Dean gave Democrats the jitters and, Kerry, deadly boring and unprincipled though he may have been, is someone Democrats knew well enough to rely on to be their guy in the general election.
Like I noted in the first paragraph, a McCain candidacy is my own personal nightmare. I am "Anybody But McCain" for the Republican nomination. I don't trust him and my anti-McCain list grows by the day. He can't beat Hillary, and he can't be counted on to support conservative positions when they actually matter. He takes convenient stances and insults the same conservative movement he claims to be a part of when it helps him. He's too in love with being the maverick and, while I like having maverick friends who are unpredictable and drag me to Atlantic City on a Wednesday, I look for stability and consistency in my presidential candidates. I would very much like to be wrong in the predictions I've made here; it will be terrifying to be right.
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I blog at www.alarmingnews.com. More... |
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m2f
hm
are you male or female?
Gerard
John McCain Can Win (Don't Laugh)
I don't see it.
There's no way that Republican primary voters-outside of a state like Utah perhaps-are going to vote for someone who's position on immigration and border policy is MORE obnoxious than President Bush's.
He may see a rebound-even do well in New Hampshire if the Paul boomlet turns out to be as manufactured as I think it is-but I don't see any way for him to win the Republican nomination, short of a brokered convention, which isn't happening.
That's not to say that I'll think Giuliani will be the nominee, but I think his chances of winning that prize are infinitely better than McCain's.
Any of the potential outcomes at this moment look bleak.
We'll either have a candidate who's competitive in the general election against Her Shrillness and capable of dismantling her in the debates, but who is burdened with so much baggage and so unpopular to a large segment of the Republican base-not Christian conservatives, but pro-lifers and RKB activists-that his chances of winning are slim.
Or, a regional candidate who will be blown out in the electoral college because he'll only carry the South, parts of the Southwest and Interior West, and maybe one or two states in the mid-west.
Or, and this is the most frightening scenario, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, we'll lose big in the presidential race, and it will have a cascading effect down-ballot that will make the next election a watershed year for Pelosi & Co.
-Gerard
Gerard
John McCain Win (Don't Laugh)
To be honest, and I realize this is an unpopular position-because for some unfathomable reason sticking with horrible options rather than seeking out a better alternative is preferable to most Republicans when it comes to choosing presidential nominees-I would love to see someone like Gov. Sara Palin jump into the race.
She's the ideal candidate, IMO.
She's crushed every incumbent-including a former U.S. Senator and sitting governor-she's ever faced, she's incredibly popular, impecabbly conservative, there would not be a single part of the Republican constituency she would alienate, and she's from the West, which I see the GOP struggling with for the foreseeable future. Not to mention the fact that she's more photogenic than any of the people currently under consideration.
Plus, choosing her would completely deflate the only rationale Hillary Clinton has for running for prez, i.e. electing the first female POTUS.
She could choose someone like Gov. Jodi Rell for geographic/political balance without alienating social conservatives-since she's also good on the issue of immigration and would not have nearly the power wielded by Dick Cheney, another HUGE appeal to the electorate-and rally a unified party behind her.
Karol Sheinin
I'm very much
I'm very much female.
Gerard, I guess a Mitt win is possible, he is sort of seen as the conservative standard bearer right now, which is funny on many levels. I actually like Mitt a lot, I like all of our candidates except McCain.
Jonathan
Bob Dole for the 21st century
I agree with you about McCain, at least for 2008. I liked McCain in 2000, but his time has passed. He reminds me too much of Bob Dole and the 1996 election. The last thing the republicans need is an old white Senator running against the first woman or black american to get a major nomination. McCain is no Ronald Reagan. When you saw Reagan on tv or in person in 1980 you saw a vigorous executive. When you look at McCain in 2008 you see an old legislator.
Gerard
I like Mitt too...
...just not enough to let him take the charred remains of the national Republican Party with him to ignominious defeat.
I agree with you about McCain, although my hostility to him has waned considerably recently.
I don't know if that means I've adjusted my expectations to reality or that McCain is not as much of a horror show as he has been.
I still wouldn't vote for him in primary-I know I didn't the last time I had the opportunity to do so.
Karol Sheinin
<i>I agree with you about
<i>I agree with you about McCain, although my hostility to him has waned considerably recently.</i>
I bet this is happening to lots of people right about now.
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